Ufc 240 Betting Predictions
Free UFC picks & tips 2021. Don't miss UFC Fighting predictions and UFC picks analysis from SBR betting experts to start betting on the UFC.
Last week betting preview wasn’t our best. We went 3-3. I guess the victory train had to come to an end at some point.
I’m happy with 5 weeks at a near 80% winning percentage but not nearly content.
- Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar: UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar. Max Holloway -400; Frankie Edgar +300; Odds as of July 24 at Bovada. Cris Cyborg -700; Felicia Spencer +450; Geoff Neal -335; Niko Price +255; Olivier Aubin-Mercier +175; Arman Tsarukyan -205; Marc-Andre Barriault +140; Krzysztof Jotko -170; Alexis Davis +200.
- UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from the top online sportsbooks. Boxing Parlay Settings.
- UFC Fight Night 184 picks. Alistair Overeem to win @ +160 with BetMGM. Frankie Edgar to win by decision @ +500 with BetMGM. Manel Kape to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ +240.
Let’s examine what we did wrong and right and then move on to this week’s action from Edmonton.
Best UFC 240 Matchups:
- Sarah Frota vs Gilian Robertson
- Arman Tsarukyan vs Olivier Aubin Mercier
- Geoff Neal vs Niko Price
- Christine Cyborg Justiniano vs Felicia Spencer
- Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar
*Betting Odds Provided by BetOnline
We lost the Bruce Leroy versus Steven Pederson fight. My first instinct was to pick Caceres but after watching each of their previous fights, I was leaning towards Steve-O.
He was able to take down the lankier Luis Pena, so I thought he could do the same to Alex. What I didn’t take into account was that Leroy is a better striker and distance manager than the less-experienced Pena.
That jab and reaction time kept Pederson away from his legs.
Okay, that’s the technical explanation but what incensed me was that Pederson had multiple entries into the clinch every round but decided to go with a Thai plum necktie “attempt” nearly every time on the significantly taller man.
The man’s IQ just isn’t there. Hence his new nickname of Steve-O. He’s from Dallas and probably a Cowboys fan so go figure.
We lost the Rothwell vs Arlovski fight as well.
Boy, did Andrei look great!
I knew Ben was slow and to say I didn’t foresee a speed advantage for the Belarussian would be a lie but he made Andrei look like Manny Pacquiao was fighting Keith Thurman’s tortoise self.
Arlovski did say in a post-fight interview that he almost quit during the scrap after taking a hard right hand. I found that very surprising and even more shocking that he would publicly admit it but props to him for setting aside his ego and being so transparent.
What we did right:
- Picking against my friend Roxy Modafferi turned out well but I’m sure her opponent Jennifer Maia was assisted by the 4 extra pounds she was over at the weigh-ins.
That’s the second time this has happened to Modafferi in her last few fights. Sijara Eubanks did the same thing. There are zero excuses for missing weight. It’s deplorable, and she took advantage of Roxy’s martial arts spirit. - We were spot on with Dan Hooker over James Vick. The latter has holes in his defense and the more technical fighter exploited a big one.
- As for the Adams vs Greg Hardy heavyweight matchup, it began as I suspected with Hardy looking like he’s never been hit before in his life a la Ronda Rousey.
Juan for sure rushed the takedown, though, but to Hardy’s credit, he definitively defended it with a strong whizzer. Shortly after, Adams was a victim of his own haircut as his ‘fro made it impossible for Big Dan to determine if Hardy’s punches were to the back of his head or the side.
I believe if Juan would have patiently kept it standing, he could have knocked the former footballer out. My reasoning for a win was wrestling, though, so I’ll take that one on the chin.
The main event saved us when Leon Edwards fought masterfully for 25 minutes against the former world champion Rafael Dos Anjos.
This week, the UFC 240 betting lines for the main and co-main events are rather lopsided but I have a few props in mind to make them more affordable.
I also referenced to other UFC betting sites for some specific UFC 240 props.
Let’s pick ‘em!
Sarah Frota vs Gilian Robertson
This is an odd matchup that we don’t get to see very often.
Both women are primarily grapplers.
Gillian seems to be the better athlete but Sarah showed some heavy hands in her fight against Liviana Souza.
The wrestling should favor Robertson and her BJJ game is solid enough not to get submitted. I don’t believe, though, that she will submit Frota either.
This one will likely go down as a lackluster striking match and/or a stalemate on the ground.
The over bet is the best UFC 240 bet in mixed martial arts wagering bar none.
This fight is a perfect example of when to go for it too because it is set at 1.5 rounds at (-160).
One thing I worry about is Frota improving her striking and hurting Gillian with a southpaw left hand. She will have more pop in it as well as she is coming up a weight class to 125.
If you want plus money, Bet365 has (+165) for the fight to go the distance. That’s another 7 and a half minutes for these two ladies to fight but I think it’s worth the risk.
Gillian Robertson by decision is highly valuable as well at (+400). Frota’s takedown defense at 115 pounds was atrocious. I think she will be a better fighter in her second career UFC contest but completely shoring that aspect of her game up in less than 6 months versus an American Top Team product isn’t likely.
You have a few options here or you could double or even triple up with your UFC 240 bets.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Olivier Aubin Mercier
This is your money maker right here. The Georgian Arman is a killer.
He fought Khabib’s protege Islam Makhachev is his first career UFC bout and absolutely held his own even though they had very similar styles.
Islam is on his way to his division’s top five very soon and I believe Arman is not far behind.
Olivier is a well-rounded guy but I don’t think his striking or wrestling is better than his opponent’s.
He recently lost to Alex Hernandez if that tells you anything. That kid showed zero heart or striking ability in his fight last week only to be gifted a hometown decision over Francisco Trinaldo.
If a young Hernandez can beat Mercier then a future elite competitor like Tsarukyan will do the same.
It’s hard to say if he will finish him or not. I think he will but not enough to make that pick.
Let’s just go with the W.
Ufc 240 Betting Predictions Odds
Maybe we can parlay him with the main or co-main event winners.
Geoff Neal vs Niko Price
These UFC 240 odds may be a bit lopsided considering the durability of Niko Price as he does get after it. There aren’t too many decision wins or losses on Price’s UFC record.
He was recently finished in the first round my Abdul Razak Alhassan but upon further examination, Abdul is 10-1 with 10 first-round TKO/KO’s.
I guess we can let that one slide, Niko.
Geoff Neal has fewer fights inside the Octagon than his opponent and Price has faced stiffer competition.
Those are the fights that Niko has lost, though.
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I think Price has some value here as the underdog but I’m eyeing the over 1.5 rounds UFC 240 bet in this one. Both men come from good camps with outstanding coaches and despite both of them having aggressive tendencies, I believe each will respect each other for at least the first round.
Let’s make some predictions here and hope neither man falls before the 2:30 mark of the 2nd and go with the over.
Christine Cyborg Justiniano vs Felicia Spencer
Wow, I watched Felicia’s fights before she fought her only UFC contest versus Megan Anderson and I was sooo sure she would lose. She has a visibly high body fat percentage and is not a great athlete. Megan Anderson, though, has ZERO takedown defense and NEGATIVE Jiu-Jitsu.
Cyborg is Cyborg, though.
Hence the betting line, although there are questions here.
Her now-former coach, Jason Parillo, has stated that but Christine continues with the narrative of “you win some, you lose some”. She has never respected any of her opponents and until her last fight, she never had to.
Felicia’s grappling is top-notch, though, so maybe we will see a more technical Cyborg in this one.
And then there’s the fact that she’s been training in South Africa…
She’s been at the country’s top gym at least but that’s an unknown there.
If she fights with just 10% more calculation than she has in the past, she will win this one easy.
Admittedly, I am a bit of a Spencer hater since she made me look like a fool when I picked her to lose “for sure”. I have to admit, though, that she has not shown any kind of defeatist mindset in the buildup to this contest. She’s also never fought anyone the caliber of Cyborg in her brief career.
I want to parlay the Brazilian but right now let’s go with a first-round win for (-138).
Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar
People are sleeping on Frankie in this one. He is a live dog. No, he hasn’t beat any top contender in a long while. He took advantage of a one-dimensional Yair Rodriguez a couple of years ago. Two years before that, he impressively KO’ed Chad Mendes on the feet. Chad isn’t as tall as Max, though. Two years prior, the decision’d Charles Oliviera. He even took the man down twice avoiding submissions.
You can make the argument that he hasn’t faced someone like Max before but that argument can be applied to Max as well, kinda.
More on that in a minute.
Holloway took some heavy shots when he went up to 155 to fight Dustin Poirier, and that fight wasn’t very long ago. It was just over 3 months to be exact.
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Okay, so when was Max’s last defeat? Conor McGregor. It was 6 years ago. Most people know that.
Just 3 months before that fight, though, he fought a man by the name of Dennis Bermudez. Dennis’s MMA game is eerily similar to that of Edgar. Bermudez mixed up the striking and the takedowns very well securing 4 TD’s in the 15-minute fight on his way to a unanimous decision win.
With all that being said, Frankie has trouble dealing with a solid jab and Max has one of the best.
Frankie has a great team behind him who know how to game plan as well as anyone. Add that to the fact that they have trained Frankie for this fight several times already.
We have to remember that Max is not unbeatable. He, in fact, lost his last fight.
Holloway was on the receiving end of 178 significant strikes in that contest, and here we are just 100 days later.
I believe Max will win this fight but he is not worth the (-375) that is advertised.
A submission win for either guy is out the window. Neither guy is a specialist in that area. Frankie has never been subbed in his career and Max has only one on his record, and that was 7 years ago to Poirier.
There are a few bets on each side I like here.
- Frankie by KO/TKO or decision is (+450). That’s almost 1.5 points higher than taking him to win and as I said, a sub for either guy is truly far-fetched.
- Holloway by TKO or decision for (-250) is a bit more affordable.
Everyone in the world thinks Max is going to win this fight and his jab and takedown defense will probably carry him there.
I’m going with “The Answer”, though. I think he is very well-rested, isn’t the type of athlete to let himself with more than a year off, and has probably been training for Holloway for a combined 24 months at this point.
Parlay
You can take one or two of these out if you like but I feel pretty good about all of them.
Price could get stopped in the first half of the fight but that one truly makes the payout juicier. It takes it from (+277) to (+692).
Hang in there Niko!
Bet 14.44 to win 100.00 OR Bet 144.40 to win 1000.00
As they say in Thailand, “Up to you”.
In Conclusion
UFC 240 doesn’t have a huge amount of big names but that doesn’t stop us.
There is huge value on these betting picks and from a money-making standpoint, that’s all that matters. Edmonton, Alberta will be rocking. Canadian fight fans are not only the most polite but quite knowledgeable as well.
Frota and Robertson could go either way. It’s hard to say because Sarah Frota is going up in weight and her level could go up. This is just her second fight in the UFC Octagon so I expect a two-fold increase. With that being said, she was easily taken down at a lower weight class and wrestling is Robertson’s strength. They match up well and are both grapplers so the bet is on the over.
Ufc 248 Betting Predictions
I love Armen to win. I have no idea how or when, though.
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Geoff Neal should get the W over Price. Niko has come back and won several times before but Neal’s takedown defense percentage is in the high 80s with a heat index of 98.6. I think it’ll take Geoff a round or so to get his range on the lengthy Price. Hopefully, that’s enough to snag that over 1.5 rounds bet.
While numerous questions are surrounding Cris Cyborg and her opponent has nothing to lose but brain cells, I still have to put my dough on the Brazilian to make it a short night.
That means Frankie and Max will be walking soon.
I haven’t always been the biggest fan of Edgar because I love BJ Penn so much but Frankie is a prototype.
He is only giving up 2 inches of reach against Holloway, surprisingly, and Max may be coming back too quickly from the Poirier fight.
I’m with Frankie!
As for the parlay, normally I don’t reach for the stars with 5 legs but life is short.
Hope you have found this betting preview useful and enjoy the scraps, team!