1. Draftkings Parlay
2. Draftkings Value Calculator Estimate
3. Draftkings Ipo Valuation
4. Draftkings Player Values

The topic of “value” is something you read or hear about on a daily basis when it comes to NBA DFS strategy. The idea is that each player, dependent on their salary, needs to score a certain number of fantasy points to “pay for himself”. It’s a way to make sure that every dollar you spend is being converted into the correct number of fantasy points. The value calculation is fairly simple, but can still be difficult to grasp for new players. I’ll do my best to explain it below:

DraftKings Promo Code Monkey Knife Fight Promo Code Here is the breakdown of Curry's cash game “value threshold': 10 (thousand) X 4 + 5 = 45 FP. In order for Curry to meet value, he'll need to produce 45 FP.

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The “Value Calculation”

On DraftKings, you get a $50,000 salary cap. How many fantasy points do you need to score from that $50,000? Well, 300 would be a really good goal. Almost all nights, that’s going to be comfortably inside the cash line. If you want to achieve 300 points from $50,000 in salary cap space, you need to get six fantasy points for every $1,000 you spend (300/50 = 6). That means earning 300 fantasy points from $50K in salary is the equivalent of earning 6x value. If you were to score 350 points, that would be 7x value and 250 points would only be 5x value. Those numbers are for your entire lineup, but it makes more sense to break it down on a more individual basis. If every player in your lineup achieves 6x value, you’ll earn 300 fantasy points.

The idea of breaking it down individually levels the playing field between players who cost $10,000 and players who cost $4,000. While it would be awesome if they did, we cannot realistically expect our $4,000 players to score as many fantasy points as our $10,000 players. The value calculation asks both players to do their fair share, which is achieve six fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary. Your $4,000 player only needs 24 fantasy points to pay for himself, while your $10,000 player needs 60 fantasy points to achieve that same value.

Not All Players Are Created Equal

If you’ve read, watched or listened to anything I’ve ever said, you’ve probably heard me utter “not all players are created equal”. This is where variance comes into play. Some players have extremely volatile fantasy outputs while their counterparts might be more consistent. Here’s a graphic from the Player Scoring Calendar to help explain:

What you’ll notice is that James Harden and Anthony Davis have essentially identical season averages of DraftKings points per game. Harden averaged 59.03 DKPPG while Davis checks in 58.28. On paper, they look like very similar players, but when you look closer, they couldn’t be more different. Harden is much more consistent, scoring between 50-60 DraftKings points on most nights. Davis has flashed higher upside (games in the 80s and 90s), but also has a lower floor. Thanks to duds and/or injuries, Davis is more susceptible to a game in the 30s or 40s which is certainly not acceptable from a player of his salary.

The last column in my Player Scoring Calendar is “StdDev” which is standard deviation. If you’re not familiar with SD, check it out, it’s just a mathematical calculation based on a range of outcomes. The more spread out the outcomes, the higher the standard deviation. The closer the outcomes, the lower the standard deviation. Harden’s 9.62 StdDev is one of the lowest in the league, meaning he’s one of the most consistent players in the league. Davis, and his 18.07 StdDev, is one of the most volatile players in the league.

So why does this matter? It matters because the “type” of player you roster should fit with the type of contest that you’re playing. In cash games, you are look for sure points with little risk. You should be looking for consistent players who are not going to kill you with a dud. In GPPs, where a much higher score is necessary to win, you are willing to take on more risk to capture more reward. That’s why you should b thrilled to roster volatile players in an attempt to get their “ceiling game”.

Draftkings Parlay

The Problem With Standard Deviation

I love StdDev and I use it daily. However, while StdDev is a nice snapshot of volatility, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Anthony Davis’ large StdDev really just says that he has games that are very far away from his season average. Well, for fantasy basketball, we don’t care if his games are far away from his average as long as they are ABOVE his average. He could have a game that is 30 points different than his average. If it’s 30 points OVER his season average, that’s great! If it’s 30 points UNDER his season average, we hate him.

The Solution

That’s where the Value Chart comes into play. Since I have every Game Log for every player this season, I’ve been able to compile how often a player actually hits value. Here are the top 10 players, based on average DraftKings salary.

Now THIS is a chart! Let’s go back to the the Harden vs. Davis example. Now it’s very easy to see the difference between these two players. James Harden, who is a virtual lock to reach 4x value, is going to reach 5x value half the time but he has rarely hit 6x value. Davis has laid some eggs, failing to reach 3x or 4x as often as Harden, but the upside is tremendous. A whopping 36% chance for him to hit 6x and also has games of 7x, 8x and 9x value. This cements the fact that, in general, Davis is a GPP type of player while Harden is better for cash games.

Fun Facts

• James Harden ranks 316 of 444 of players hitting 6x value.
• LeBron James has the best 6x conversion rate of anyone with the average salary over $6,800. His average salary is $9,600. (This is insane)
• The league average of scoring 5x value is 31.46% while 6x value is 18.4%.

Now What?

As you dig through this chart, you’ll notice that most of the players who achieve 6x value more often as usually less expensive. This makes sense, right? A guy who cost $5,000 only needs 30 DraftKings points to hit the number while someone like Russell Westbrook might need 72 DraftKings points to reach the same mark. I would argue that it’s okay for your studs to only hit 5x value if your lower salary players can reach 6x, 7x or even 8x value. It’s a give and take. The glaring thing is how insane some players have been this season. LeBron James and Hassan Whiteside are hitting 6x value at ~40% of the time, both with large price tags on a daily basis.

How the Pros Make Money Playing Daily Fantasy Football (FanDuel & DraftKings)

Understanding Site Salaries

The ability to determine a players value vs their point production (output) is what separates the professional Daily fantasy football players that are making money playing Fanduel and Draftkings vs those who are losing money.

Fantasy football is a game based on risk and reward. A player’s value can only be determined by their expected production exceeding the cost to draft them. There is no way to determine “value” without some idea of the cost.

It’s no different than your season long fantasy league; the cost would be a player’s average draft position. In daily fantasy, the cost is much easier to understand. Every DFS site whether its FanDuel or DraftKings, provides salaries for each player, and only way to determine a players value is by comparing a player’s salary vs his anticipated production.

After all, the actual production you receive from a player is not as important as the production you receive relative to his salary. That’s why daily fantasy players create spreadsheets to determine a player’s actual value by their cost per-point of production to figure out which players are the best values and how to best optimize lineups. Player salaries are an absolutely vital aspect of understanding value.

What do I mean by cost per point of production?

For example in your season long league, if you drafted Mike Evans in round 5 and he gets you 160 fantasy points this year or Vincent Jackson in round 3 and he gets you 170 fantasy points, who is the better value? Clearly Mike Evans is the better value. Daily fantasy football is no different, except every week we need to know which player will give us the most production for their designated salary.

In daily fantasy sports, if you draft Aaron Rodgers at a cost of $9900 and you project he will get you 30 points or Matt Ryan for $6000 and you project he will get you 20 points, who is the better value?

To calculate a price of a players point of production we divide a players salary by the projected points we think a player will score.

Aaron Rodgers $9,900/30(pts)= $330 per point of production

Matt Ryan $6,000/20(pts) = $300 per point of production

Draftkings Value Calculator Estimate

Clearly Matt Ryan is the better option for two reasons. First, he costs less per point of production and second, selecting Ryan for you lineup saves you $3,900 in cap space. That’s HUGE when you only have $60,000 cap space to spend on FanDuel and $50,000 cap space available to spend on DraftKings.

Why is this great when Rodgers will score more points?

Because using Rodgers gives you less to spend on other player positions. This means you will be sacrificing production in other positions because you can only afford lesser quality players.

Selecting Ryan gives you allows you to select a stud wide receiver or running back in you lineup that will make up the production lost between Rodgers and Ryan.

Another point Daily Players consider is a players ceiling vs their floor. What that means is Rodgers floor is lowest points you expect Rodgers to score and his ceiling is the most you think Rodgers will score. Now going back to our calculations what if Rodgers floor is 20 points and his ceiling is 30 points?

Rodgers $9,900/20 points = $495 per point!

If Rodgers doesn’t produce, your spending $495 per point and that is just too expensive and will cost you in other areas of your team. If Ryan gets his 20 points it only cost you $300 per point!

Draftkings Ipo Valuation

Determining Value Across Different Positions

I covered how to determine a players value based on the same position, but how do you tell if a players fantasy production value is worth the price across positions? If Gronk cost you $7,000 and Calvin Johnston costs you $9,500, who is more valuable?

Using All the Information Available to Make Your Selections

So why doesn’t everyone make and perform spreadsheet analysis?

For starters, it’s very time consuming to make a spreadsheet, entering each player’s name, their salary, coming up with their expected production, and then calculating their cost per point of production. Imagine doing that for every position? That’s why professional daily fantasy football players do this, because they make a living playing daily fantasy sports, so its worth it ot them to do this whereas the average person does not have the time to do this. Then after doing that you need time to perform the analysis

So how can the average guy even the odds and create a spreadsheet or obtain this player cost per point of production data?

Lockdown Corner now offers this salary vs projection price per point of production information. We can send you the most used players salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings. We calculate their production based on the average projected points by fantasy “gurus” and calculate the cost per point of production. Having this data allows you to turn your projections into value ratings without the hours’ worth of work involved

How to use Cost Per Point of Production Data?

Draftkings Player Values

I will get into this in another article. This data is a great guide for users but the human factor is still important in creating your teams. Knowing who is injured, who is starting, and strength of matchups are extremely important.